Contract X-Ray
A contract's headline number isn't what it's worth. Count deferrals, options and opt-outs at today's value, then set it against what the player actually produces.
- Coach questions
- 2
- Asked on air
- 9×
- Top question
- Q-28
Coach questions it could answer
The playbook →- What are contracts really worth after deferrals, options and reputation?
Turn every contract's payment schedule into today's dollars, with deferred money discounted and options and opt-outs valued, so two deals with the same headline can be compared honestly.
- Are some players systematically underrated relative to their production?
Set each player's real contract value against his production to find the players who give their teams the most value per dollar, the ones whose pay and reputation lag behind what they do.
Data it needs
The data lake →0 of 2 on hand; the rest arrives in phase 4, Front office.
Could use later: Payroll
The question
When a contract is announced, the headline total is what gets repeated. But money paid years later is worth less now, and options and opt-outs shift value between team and player. What is a contract really worth, and which players are underpaid for what they produce?
How it would work
- A contract’s payment schedule, including deferred payments, turned into today’s dollars with a stated discount rate.
- Options and opt-outs valued from the player’s projected performance, so the page shows who holds the leverage.
- Production per real dollar for every player under contract, against the league.
First version
- The twenty largest active contracts, each with its headline and present-day value side by side and the schedule drawn as a timeline.
- A value-per-dollar table for regulars, with a note on what “production” counts.
The data
Public contract terms and payment schedules, and season stats for production.
What it needs
- Reliable contract terms. Deferral schedules and option details need a source that publishes them consistently.
- A stated discount rate. The present value depends on it, so the page should let you change it and see the effect.
Status
An idea on the launchpad. Nothing is built yet.