44 questions, ranked.

Decompose wins minus BaseRuns/run-differential expectation into bullpen leverage, clutch hitting, one-run and head-to-head records, Retrosheet 1950-2026, versus league-average deviation and year-to-year persistence.

How many one-run and two-run games have the Reds lost to the Brewers? Jake, Jun 26, 2026

• Real or RandomExperiment

  Deal one-run game sequences from lucky and unlucky teams without names. The one-run study found that record is mostly coin flips; if players can't tell the good teams from the lucky ones, that's the same finding from the gut side.

Rolling xwOBA, bat speed, chase and walk rates versus prior baseline for 2015-2026 breakouts and collapses; measure PA thresholds where change beats projection, against league regression rates.

How did Ben Rice suddenly become one of the best hitters in baseball out of nowhere? Jake, Jun 3, 2026

• Breakout ClockTool

  Pick any hitter and stat. The clock compares his rolling numbers with his prior baseline and shows how many more plate appearances it takes before the change is bigger than the noise for that stat.

Year-to-year correlation and regression coefficients for platoon, home-road, day-night, RISP, half-season splits, LOB% and batter-vs-pitcher history, Retrosheet/Statcast 2000-2026, versus binomial-noise expectation.

Would a hitter who's succeeded against a pitcher in a small sample eventually start struggling against him with more at-bats? Jake, Apr 8, 2026

• Breakout ClockTool

  The same math works for splits. Enter a day-night, home-road or versus-pitcher split and see whether the sample is big enough to mean anything yet.

Year-to-year correlation and cross-metric agreement of OAA, DRS and UZR by position, plus double-play conversion rates, Statcast 2016-2026, versus noise expectation and scout grades.

Among the AL second base candidates (Clement, Jackson, McNeil, Young), who is performing better defensively? Trevor, May 6, 2026

• Glove ConsensusVisualization

  Plot every fielder's rating in one system against another. Points near the diagonal are fielders everyone agrees on; the far ones show exactly where and by how much the systems disagree.

Actual versus expected home runs from exit velocity, launch angle, spin and carry, re-simulated at all 30 parks, Statcast 2015-2026, versus league conversion rate.

How much does a ballpark's dimensions/park factors actually affect a hitter's home run totals? Jake, Feb 16, 2026

• Spray AtlasTool

  Compare a hitter's pulled fly balls this year with past years. If the hard, pulled air contact is still there but stays in the park, look at the park; if it's gone, the hitter changed.

• Power AuditResearch

  Split a hitter's home run change into three parts. Park is his expected home runs in a neutral park versus his own; luck is actual home runs versus what his contact deserved; hitter is the change in that contact itself.

Before-and-after projected-versus-actual wRC+, stuff and pitch-mix change for players joining each club or coach, Statcast 2015-2026, versus matched controls and the 30-team average.

How much credit for Luis Arraez's defensive improvement belongs to Ron Washington's infield coaching versus Arraez's own work? Jake, May 1, 2026

• Player FactoryResearch

  For every player who joins a new organization, compare what he did there with a projection made from his numbers before the move. Average the gap by organization to see which ones really add value, with error bars.

IL placements, IL days and WAR lost per team per season plus hamate incidence, injury data 2010-2026, versus base rates, correlated with bat speed and year-over-year innings jumps.

Why are so many players (like Lindor, Carroll, Holliday) suffering hamate bone injuries this spring, and what are they doing differently to cause it? Trevor, Feb 11, 2026

• Velo WatchTool

  Mark injured-list stints on the same timeline to test whether velocity dips came before injuries, and whether heavy recent workloads came before the dips.

Distribution of best and worst 30-to-60-game stretches by team, Retrosheet 1901-2026, versus Monte Carlo simulation from individual game logs and binomial expectation for equal-talent teams.

Is it actually true that the Red Sox's 31-5 record over their last 36 games is the best 36-game record in MLB history? Trevor, Aug 7, 2026

• Claim CheckTool

  The Red Sox's 31–5 is the prototype. Answers for Coach checked "best 36 games ever" and found six AL/NL teams with a better run, but no team that went 31–5 from that far below .500. Claim Check makes that a repeatable process.

• Real or RandomExperiment

  Put team win-loss runs in the deck, including the 2026 Red Sox's 31–5. Answers for Coach found that run unlikely as pure luck; this asks whether people can see it, too.

Runs per inning by leadoff lineup spot, on-deck hitter quality effects on walks and wOBA, fifth-through-ninth-best-hitter wRC+, and team output minus its best hitter, Retrosheet/Statcast 1990-2026, versus league average.

Does it actually benefit a team for its nine-hole hitter to make the final out with two outs, so the leadoff hitter starts the next inning with the bases empty? Jake, Mar 18, 2026

• Lineup LabInteractive

  Drag hitters into any order and simulate thousands of games. The gap between the best and worst orders shows how much lineup construction really changes run scoring, with the noise drawn in so a small gap doesn't look like a big one.

Compare closers' WAR to WPA and championship-added, and team win change when they are lost or replaced, Retrosheet/Statcast 2010-2026, versus WAR's prediction and hitter-value conversion.

Has Cam Schlittler affected more plays/games this season than Jordan Alvarez has, factoring in how he impacts outcomes compared to a hitter? Jake, Sep 25, 2026

• Leverage LedgerVisualization

  Put each reliever's WAR next to his win probability added and a leverage-weighted value. The relievers whose bars disagree most are the ones WAR undersells or oversells.

Next-15-PA wOBA, walk rate and pitch mix after 10-game hot streaks, slow starts, hitless runs and hit-by-pitches, Retrosheet/Statcast 2000-2026, versus each hitter's season baseline.

Does getting hit by pitches help a hitter avoid falling into slumps? Jake, Sep 2, 2026

• Real or RandomExperiment

  Show a hitter's real game-by-game log next to copies rolled from his season averages. If players can't pick the real one more often than chance, his hot and cold stretches look like what randomness produces anyway.

Relief share of innings, pitches and batters per start, piggyback outings, lefty-reliever share, pitchers used per team and consecutive-game reliever usage, Retrosheet 1950-2026, versus league trend.

Which teams used to call up large numbers of players (like 40) in September before roster expansion rules changed? Jake, Aug 28, 2026

• Leverage LedgerVisualization

  Chart the share of innings thrown by starters and relievers every season, with the high-leverage innings highlighted, to show how the split evolved and where the important innings went.

Home runs per batted ball, inferred drag, 20-homer and 55-homer season counts and run distribution, Retrosheet 1901-2026 plus Statcast, controlling for temperature, launch conditions and parks.

How many 20-home-run seasons occur across MLB in a given year, on average per team? Trevor, Jul 24, 2026

• Power AuditResearch

  Run the same split league-wide by season to separate the ball, the parks and the hitters across the home run era.

• Era DialInteractive

  Put home runs per game on the same dial so the home run era's peaks and dips line up against the rule changes and against strikeouts.

Fastball velocity by count, inning, month and leverage for pitchers losing or gaining 2-plus mph, Statcast 2015-2026, versus age-based decline curves, rest patterns and acquiring-team effects.

Would the Brewers ever consider skipping a start or shutting down Freddy Peralta/Misiorowski given his declining velocity, despite his Cy Young push? Trevor, Aug 28, 2026

• Velo WatchTool

  Plot every start's average fastball against the pitcher's own baseline band. Dips outside the band are flagged, and the chart shows how often velocity came back and how long it took.

• Tunnel VisionVisualization

  Compare a pitcher's tunnels on high-velocity and low-velocity days. If the pairs split earlier when velocity is down, it shows what a velocity dip costs beyond the radar gun.

Run value, platoon splits, swing-timing misses and survival by arm-angle bucket and tempo variance, Statcast 2020-2026, versus over-the-top, consistent-tempo pitchers and the league pitch-profile centroid.

Why don't more pitchers drop down to a submarine/sidearm arm angle like Tyler Rogers, given his success? Jake, Dec 15, 2025

• Tunnel VisionVisualization

  Measure how long each pitcher's pairs stay together, grouped by arm slot. If unusual slots keep pitches tunneled longer, that's a mechanism for why they work, not just a correlation.

• Read the PitchExperiment

  Log every clip's arm angle and release point. If players misread pitches from low or unusual slots more often, that's direct evidence the delivery itself hides the ball, which is the case the hosts keep making for funky arm angles.

Called-strike probability by location and count, catcher-specific framing runs, and before-after ABS change, Statcast MLB 2015-2026 plus Triple-A 2022-2025, versus the league-average receiver.

How will the ABS (automated strike zone) system affect catcher framing metrics and defensive ratings? Trevor, Mar 18, 2026

• Zone ShiftResearch

  Measure each catcher's framing runs before and after challenges arrived. If the best framers lose the most, ABS is erasing the skill; if the ranking holds, framing still pays on the calls nobody challenges.

Bat speed by count, swing length, attack angle, finish height and spray angle versus exit velocity and ISO, Statcast 2023-2026, against hitters matched on size and output.

How many hitters actually finish their swing with the bat below shoulder height, like Manzardo does? Trevor, May 4, 2026

• Spray AtlasTool

  Color batted balls by bat speed and squared-up rate to find hitters whose fastest swings land in the wrong part of the field, the hidden power the hosts keep wondering about.

Run value per 100 and whiff rate by pitch type, count and location versus usage share, Statcast 2008-2026, including first pitches and known hitter weaknesses, against league sequencing baselines.

How much would Ben Rice's vulnerability to high velocity actually factor into opposing teams' scouting reports and pitch-calling strategy? Jake, Aug 19, 2026

• Tunnel VisionVisualization

  Draw where each pitch finishes against where its tunnel partner does. A pitcher locating well keeps pairs tight until late and splits them toward the edges, not the middle.

• Read the PitchExperiment

  Score each call against the pitch's location as well as its type. A pitcher whose best pitch is hardest to read when it's on the edge is throwing it in the right spot.

Spread of defensive runs by position, sprint-speed-to-OAA correlation, and WAR change for position switches, Statcast 2015-2026, versus WAR's positional adjustments and equal-WAR bat-first players.

What do advanced defensive metrics say about which positions matter most defensively? guest, Jun 3, 2026

• Glove ConsensusVisualization

  Show how much of each player's WAR comes from defense and the position adjustment, and how far his WAR would move if a different defensive system were plugged in.

MLB wRC+, WAR and All-Star rates for NPB/KBO signings and by birth country per capita, 1995-2026, versus preseason projections, comparable domestic free agents and signing destinations.

Have most Japanese players who came over to MLB historically ended up signing with West Coast teams? Trevor, Nov 10, 2025

• Player FactoryResearch

  Apply it to players arriving from Japan and Korea, comparing their first MLB seasons with what their previous league's numbers translated to.

Variance in steal success explained by sprint speed versus jump, lead and disengagement count, Statcast 2015-2026, plus team baserunning runs and whether technique markers transfer year to year.

Why don't pitchers/catchers attempt a third pickoff throw after two unsuccessful pickoff attempts, given how big a lead the runner takes afterward? Trevor, Jul 3, 2026

• Steal LabResearch

  Split every steal attempt into the runner's lead, jump and sprint speed against the pitcher's time to the plate and the catcher's pop time, and measure how much each piece moves the odds of being safe.

Age-27-to-37 WAR, wRC+, stuff and command trajectories for power-first, speed-first hitters and elite starters, 1950-2026, versus the overall league aging curve.

Do power hitters tend to age better than speed-reliant players, as some stats suggest? Trevor, Dec 10, 2025

• Prime TimeVisualization

  Build separate aging curves for sprint speed, power, plate discipline and pitch velocity from year-to-year changes in the same players, and show where each skill peaks and how fast it fades.

Team revenue, deferral-adjusted payroll and WAR per dollar versus wins, 2000-2026; payroll bunching at the CBT line; win-percentage spread and title concentration versus capped leagues.

How does having a salary cap compare to baseball in creating competitive parity in other sports? Trevor, Oct 18, 2025

• Division GapResearch

  Plot payroll against wins every season and measure how tight the link is, then show how the spread of team quality would change if payrolls were squeezed together.

Pitching changes, game time, pace, walk rate and violation counts before and after the three-batter minimum and pitch clock, Retrosheet/Statcast 2015-2026, versus pre-existing trends and imports' home-league tempo.

How will the pitch clock affect Japan's MLB-caliber pitchers, since Japan's league doesn't use a pitch clock? Trevor, Feb 23, 2026

• Era DialInteractive

  Mark the 2023 pitch clock, shift limits and bigger bases, and the 2026 ABS challenges, and show each stat in the seasons before and after.

• Zone ShiftResearch

  The called-zone map before and after 2026 is a direct, pitch-level measure of one rule change, the kind of evidence the hosts asked for about every recent rule.

Interleague and interdivision win percentage, run differential, aggregate projected WAR, lead turnover and division-winner quality, Retrosheet 1969-2026, versus the all-division average and schedule composition.

Why does the AL appear to be the weakest it's ever been this season? guest, Jul 13, 2026

• Division GapResearch

  Rank divisions and leagues by their records against everyone outside them, adjusted for opponent quality, so "the toughest division" becomes a number with an uncertainty range.

Compare PA and starts by opposing handedness to per-PA production for platooned regulars and bench bats, Statcast 2015-2026, plus pinch-hit penalties and lefty-heavy rotations, versus league usage patterns.

What are the actual stats (batting performance) of good everyday hitters when they are given a day off but then brought in to pinch hit? Trevor, Sep 25, 2026

• Lineup LabInteractive

  Swap platoon partners in by pitcher handedness and see the runs added, which shows whether teams are leaving value on the bench.

In-season WAR from deadline acquisitions, returns on traded draft picks, cash-inclusive salary dumps and deadline fixes for platoon holes, 2000-2026, versus acquiring-team averages and randomized trade-partner baselines.

When was the last time the Tampa Bay Rays made a surprising in-season trade to bring in a player who actually helped them that year? Trevor, Jul 29, 2026

• Player FactoryResearch

  Score deadline acquisitions the same way, over the rest of the season, against what a projection expected, so "the trade worked" means more than one hot month.

Net present value of deferred deals at 4-8% discount rates, mutual-option and qualifying-offer exercise rates, and signed-versus-projected value for flagged players, 2010-2026, versus market expectation.

How much real difference does it make to get a shorter, lump-sum contract up front versus a longer deal with deferred money, in terms of present-day value? Trevor, Jan 14, 2026

• Contract X-RayTool

  Turn every contract's payment schedule into today's dollars, with deferred money discounted and options and opt-outs valued, so two deals with the same headline can be compared honestly.

Compare three-year WAR, defensive runs and contact quality to public ranking placement by position, 2015-2026, quantifying ranking-versus-WAR gaps against the league-average ranked player.

Does Michael Harris II have as strong a case as PCA and Ceddanne Rafaela among the top center fielders this year? Jake, Sep 2, 2026

• Contract X-RayTool

  Set each player's real contract value against his production to find the players who give their teams the most value per dollar, the ones whose pay and reputation lag behind what they do.

League strikeout rate, zero-strikeout quality starts, team homers-versus-strikeouts spans and two-strike swing length, bat speed and chase, Retrosheet 1950-2026 and Statcast 2015-2026, versus count-neutral baselines.

Does it mean anything that the Blue Jays have hit more home runs than they've struck out in this series (8 to 7)? guest, Oct 6, 2025

• Era DialInteractive

  Draw league strikeout rate and two-strike contact every season, so any comparison between eras starts from what was normal then.

Game-score, velocity, release-point and command standard deviation per starter, Statcast 2015-2026, versus league starter variance, with hot-stretch runs benchmarked against each pitcher's own profile.

Did Blake Snell have a season in 2018 where he was similarly dominant/unhittable? Trevor, Oct 7, 2025

• Velo WatchTool

  The band itself answers this one. Its width is how much a starter's stuff normally varies from one start to the next.

Out probability and frequency per player-game for home run robberies, deep-hole throws and comparable conversions, Statcast 2015-2026, versus positional average play rates.

Has there ever been a game before with three home run robberies by one player? Trevor, Apr 6, 2026

• Glove ConsensusVisualization

  Use catch probability to count how many truly unlikely catches happen in a season, so the plays everyone remembers get a sense of scale.

Correlate spring ERA/FIP, debut-month production, promotion age and early homer milestones with subsequent WAR for top prospects, 2000-2026, versus preseason projections as the baseline predictor.

Is the stat about being the 4th player in MLB history with 12+ homers or 31+ RBI in their first 31 career games actually accurate? Trevor, Jul 20, 2026

• Breakout ClockTool

  Run the clock on rookies' first months to show which early numbers are already signal, like bat speed and chase rate, and which are still mostly noise, like batting average.

• Prime TimeVisualization

  Put young players on the curves to separate skills that are still rising from ones already at their peak, a second angle on which early numbers mean something.

Out probability and run prevention for infield-in versus back and alternative relay paths, Statcast 2015-2026, by exit velocity, spray angle, runner speed and inning, versus league positioning norms.

If the numbers say playing the infield back in that late-game situation is correct, why don't teams do that all the time? Trevor, Jul 24, 2026

• Spray AtlasTool

  Overlay where fielders stood with where each hitter's balls landed, to show which positioning choices took hits away and which left holes.

Win percentage after scoring first and home-team win rate including winner-take-all games, Retrosheet 1903-2025, versus win probability implied by lead, inning and team strength alone.

Why have home teams lost seven of the last eight winner-take-all Game 7s—is it added pressure, or just luck/coincidence? Trevor, Oct 20, 2025

RBI per baserunner-on-base opportunity versus expected RBI given base states and contact quality, Retrosheet/Statcast 2015-2026, with year-to-year persistence against the league average.

Why does Brandon Lockridge seem to always come through with RBI hits? Jake, May 4, 2026

• Lineup LabInteractive

  The simulator counts runners on base for every lineup spot, so it shows how much of an RBI total comes from who bats in front.

Decompose non-homer runs, exit velocity and swing decisions by temperature, date and postseason round, Statcast 2015-2026, into pitcher quality versus hitter approach relative to regular-season baselines.

Is the low-scoring, home-run-only offense in this series due to the style of baseball being played, or because the pitching is so electric that hitters are just trying to connect with one good swing? Jake, Oct 12, 2025

• Power AuditResearch

  Split league home runs by month to measure how much of the April and October drop comes from cold weather and the mix of parks, and how much is left for pitching and hitting.

Count outfielders with 95th-percentile throw velocity plus above-average accuracy, Statcast 2015-2026, versus 1990s baserunner-advance rates from Retrosheet, and within-season arm decline before disclosed injuries.

How many current MLB outfielders have elite, accurate arm strength comparable to historical outfielders like Bernie Williams or Johnny Damon? Jake, Oct 12, 2025

• Glove ConsensusVisualization

  Track the league's top arm strengths year by year to see whether elite outfield arms are actually thinning out.

Ground-ball speed retention, infield hit rate on choppers and sprint-to-first times at turf versus grass parks, Statcast 2015-2026, controlling for batted-ball profile, runner speed and park.

Does the turf at the Trop actually affect player/ball speed in baseball, and if so how? Trevor, Oct 2, 2026

• Spray AtlasTool

  Split ground balls by park surface to see whether turf changes how often grounders get through, and where.

Run expectancy change from two-out and situational walks, Retrosheet 2000-2025, plus zone, edge and location-variance profiles of high-walk pitchers, Statcast 2015-2026, versus league command averages.

How often does a two-out walk happen in a spot like that, setting up a big moment for the top of the order? Jake, Mar 18, 2026

• Zone ShiftResearch

  Track walk and strikeout rates by month alongside the zone's edges. If the edges moved, walk rates should follow, which separates the zone from the pitchers as a cause.

Rebuild leaderboards from Retrosheet/Baseball-Reference 1871-2026 and Statcast 2015-2026: 9-WAR seasons, catcher offense, DH MVPs, 400/300 club, first-pitch homers, lopsided series, velocity lookups.

Who is the sixth player (along with Beltran, A-Rod, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Andre Dawson) to have both 400 career home runs and 300 career stolen bases? Jake, Jan 21, 2026

• Claim CheckTool

  Turn each claim into a query over every team-season or player-season since 1901, then show where the claim really ranks, the near-misses, and the fine print that makes it true or false.

Win-probability cost of failing to advance on mishandled balls, slides versus run-throughs, and lane deviation, Statcast tracking 2015-2026, versus league-average advance rates on comparable plays.

How many postseason games have been decided or significantly altered by a baserunner failing to advance because he (correctly) couldn't tell a fielder was having trouble securing the ball, as happened with Durbin and Shaw? Jake, Oct 9, 2025

• Steal LabResearch

  Add up the runs gained and lost on the bases, from steals, extra bases taken and outs made running, and turn them into wins for each player and team.

Per-game gate, concession and media revenue from team financial disclosures 2000-2025, modeling eight fewer home-and-away games against attendance and ratings trends and league revenue totals.

What is the actual revenue loss from cutting the MLB season by eight games (from 162 to 154), and would that be offset by producing a better product? Trevor, Jan 14, 2026

Count teams supplying multiple selected position units across prior seasons of the segment, versus expectation if units were independently distributed across 30 clubs.

In past years of this position units draft, how many teams had multiple units (infield, outfield, rotation, bullpen) selected? Jake, Mar 18, 2026