Division Gap
Every year someone calls a division the best in baseball. Measure each one against the rest of the league and settle it.
Builds on Answers for Coach
- Coach questions
- 2
- Asked on air
- 10×
- Top question
- Q-23
Coach questions it could answer
The playbook →- Does payroll buy wins, and would a cap change parity?
Plot payroll against wins every season and measure how tight the link is, then show how the spread of team quality would change if payrolls were squeezed together.
- How much do divisions and leagues really differ in strength?
Rank divisions and leagues by their records against everyone outside them, adjusted for opponent quality, so "the toughest division" becomes a number with an uncertainty range.
Data it needs
The data lake →1 of 2 on hand; the rest arrives in phase 1, The spine.
The question
Division strength drives playoff races and schedules, and it’s argued by feel. How different are the divisions and leagues, really, and is the difference more than a season’s worth of noise?
How it would work
- Every game between teams from different divisions or leagues, with each division’s winning percentage against outsiders.
- An opponent-adjusted rating per division, with a range showing how much could be luck.
- A payroll view: wins against payroll by season, with divisions colored.
First version
- The current season and the last ten, six divisions as bars above and below .500 against the rest of baseball.
- A table of each division’s interleague and cross-division records.
The data
MLB Stats API schedules and results for every game, already cached by Answers for Coach, plus public opening-day payrolls.
What it needs
- Schedule balance. Divisions don’t play the same outside opponents, so ratings need an opponent adjustment.
- Payroll data in one consistent source and definition across seasons.
Status
An idea on the launchpad. Nothing is built yet.